A Possible Bubble Forming in India Small-Cap ETFs | ETF Trends

As the post-exuberance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election win has calmed, Indian mid-cap stocks and some country-specific related exchange traded funds are beginning to look a little frothy.

According to Equinomics Research & Advisory Pvt., Indian mid-sized companies are at their most expensive in eight years relative to larger counterparts, reports Rajhkumar K Shaaw for Bloomberg.

The rising prices on Indian mid-caps could put pressure on many so-called small-cap India ETFs, which also include a heavy tilt toward medium-sized companies.

For instance, the Market Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF (NYSEArca: SCIF) holds 52.4% in mid-cap stocks, EGShares India Small Cap ETF (NYSEArca: SCIN) includes 64.3% mid-caps and iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (NYSEArca: SMIN) tracks 82.6% mid-caps.

Looking at the valuations in the India’s market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap Index is valued at 18.3 times estimated earnings, or a 7.2% premium compared to the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.

Additionally, the three India ETFs reveal pricier valuations in those with greater allocations toward mid-caps. Specifically, SCIF has a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.0 and a price-to-book of 1.0, whereas SCIN has a 12.5 P/E and a 1.3 P/B and SMIN has a 15.6 P/E and a 1.6 P/B.

As investors pumped up the Indian equities market in response to Modi’s election win in May, valuations are touching levels that have historically catalyzed a correction. In January 2008, the last time India’s mid-cap index was hovering around these high levels, the gauge plunged 66% over the next 12 months.