New U.S. and Eurozone sanctions will eventually take its toll on Russia’s energy industry, potentially supporting Brent crude oil prices and related exchange traded fund in the long term.
The recent sanctions apply to the “sale, supply, transfer or export [of certain technologies]in connection with a project pertaining to deep sea drilling, arctic exploration or shale oil,” Financial Times reports.
So far, the restrictions have not weighed too heavily on the oil markets. The United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO) has declined 5.4% over the past month and is down 5.1% year-to-date.
Brent crude oil futures are trading around $105.1 per barrel.
However, the ongoing uncertainty over the conflicts in eastern Ukraine and geopolitical uncertainty are supporting later-dated oil pricing.
“On a one-year rear view, we note that the price of one-month Brent oil is little changed, whilst the longest dated futures contract price has increased over $11 a barrel or 13 per cent,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note. “This is an extraordinarily large movement at the tail of the curve . . . it strongly implies a material shift in expectations about the availability of supply and the marginal production cost that will clear the market in the future.”
The analysts argue that the sanctions against Russia are providing further support, along with lower long-term OPEC supply expectations due to escalating violence in Iraq and volatility in Libya. [After Sell-Off, Commodity ETFs Could Turn Around]
The long-term ramifications of the sanctions will increase costs and delay projects for new Russian oil projects in the arctic, offshore fields and shale beds.
“We may well be confronted [with]lower Russian production three to five years down the line,” Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas, said in the article.
United States Brent Oil Fund
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Max Chen contributed to this article.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.