With Thursday’s slide, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEArca: KRE) is off about 6% this year, a particularly glum performance when measured against the 2% gain for the Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLF).

Those familiar with KRE, the largest regional bank ETF, know the ETF’s utility and sensitivity to interest rates. After last year’s 47.5% surge, KRE has been experiencing that sensitivity to interest rates this year as 10-year Treasury yields have tumbled 19%. [Favored Rising Rates Ideas]

As a result, KRE’s chart is saying something and it probably is not what regional bank bulls want to hear.

“Look at the left shoulder to start the new year, the head in March and right shoulder throughout the summer. We’re now about 80 cents from breaking the neckline which is well-defined by the lows in January and May. The neckline really is the key here. We constantly find head and shoulders patterns that never confirm, so patience is important. But based on all of the evidence, I think there’s a very good chance this one breaks,” said Eagle Bay Capital President J.C. Parets.

Chart Courtesy: J.C. Parets, Eagle Bay Capital

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