Real estate investment trust-related exchange traded funds have oscillated with interest rate expectations, rising this year as rates declined and falling when rates jump. However, some industry experts are down playing the negative effects of rate risk and argue that the sector’s fundamentals play a greater role.
Year-to-date, the Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSEArca: VNQ) has gained 17.8%, iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate Index Fund (NYSEArca: IYR) rose 15.8% and SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (NYSEArca: RWR) increased 18.1%. [A Wonderful REIT ETF]
“I don’t think interest-rate hikes are a big threat to REITs, and I have a very optimistic and bullish outlook for real estate in 2014 and two years beyond 2014,” Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer of Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, said in an InvestmentNews article. [REIT ETF Ready to Rocket Higher]
Marc Halle, managing director for Prudential Real Estate Investors, believes that a favorable supply-and-demand fundamental will offset any weakness in a rising rate environment.
“Right now we’re seeing generational lows, in terms of the amount of new (commercial construction) product being delivered to the market,” Halle said in the article. “REITs offer strong income and they are a natural hedge against inflation, and it is driven by supply and demand.”
Specifically, observers point to the slow U.S. growth, which has diminished commercial development over the past six years. Meanwhile, demand has shot up, with the average occupancy rate across all REIT portfolios is now at 93.6%, near its last occupancy-rate peak of 94.3% in 2007.
“You’ve already seen hotel rates go up and you’re seeing rental rates go up in self-storage and multi-family housing,” Halle added. “We haven’t seen construction of any type since [the start of the financial crisis], and then you add to that the fundamental reality that, with real estate, you can’t just create supply overnight.”