The iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF (NYSEArca: THD) is up just a third of a percent over the past month, but that is better than being down and the gain is impressive when considering the fractious political situation in the Southeast Asian country.
Last week, THD struggled after Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was removed from power for reportedly firing a senior bureaucrat in 2011. The removal of Shinawatra marks the third time in six years a Thai prime minister with ties to the family has been removed, according to the Wall Street Journal. Yingluck replaced her brother Thaksin, who is no longer allowed to enter Thailand. [Thailand ETF in Focus After Political Drama]
The potential for regime change was well-known heading into this year, but THD has gained 18%, outperforming the major China ETFs and more docile offerings tracking South Korea and Taiwan.
Still, the impact Thai political violence can have on THD cannot be overlooked. Prior to last year’s second-quarter decline on speculation the Federal Reserve was preparing to taper quantitative ease, the largest prior multi-week decline for THD took place in 2010 when the Red Shirts and Yellow Shirts clashed in bloody protests. {Thai Tumult Pressures ETF]
However, with the risk presented by Thai equities comes potential reward. The prognostication is purely technical, not a commentary on underlying fundamentals.
“THD does a nice job of tracking the stock market in Thailand. We have been bullish here for a while and it continues to show great relative strengthto the US markets. It pulled back to some support offering a great risk reward entry in our minds,” according to Captain John Charts.