Historically (from 1928), as defined by the S&P 500, 52.1% of the trading days are up (average +0.745%) and 46.2% are down (average -0.789%). For Valentine’s day there is a thorn. On February 14th the market has been up only 40.0% of the time and down 56.9% of the time (it was flat in 1944 and 1935; it was down for the Saint Valentine’s Day massacre in 1929). The DJIA 30 was up 43.1% of the time (for the same time period), and down 56.9% of the time.
Oh well, the market is still our sweetheart, even if the returns are shorts.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
About Howard Silverblatt
Howard Silverblatt is senior index analyst for S&P Dow Jones Indices. In addition to general market research and commentary, Howard is responsible for the statistical analysis of S&P Dow Jones Indices’ family of U.S. Indices, including the world’s most followed stock market index, the S&P 500®.