In the summer months of June-Sept, during the years of backwardation in February, the average monthly total return of lean hogs was 117 basis points higher than in all the years taken together. If this pattern continues with tight supplies of lean hogs, there could be a hot roll this summer. Though one might be cautious given the history of abundance in March.

See in the charts below the data showing historical average returns, backwardation and contango.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and/or its affiliates. Data from Jan 1973 to Feb 2014. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This chart reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosure at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with backtested performance.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and/or its affiliates. Data from Jan 1973 to Feb 2014. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This chart reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosure at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with backtested performance.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and/or its affiliates. Data from Jan 1973 to Feb 2014. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This chart reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosure at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with backtested performance.

This article was written by Jodie M. Gunzberg. vice president at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
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