Notice in the analysis below that it is possible cocoa could reach a new all-time high. The current gain from the bottom in May 2012 is 42.0% and has occurred over 623 days, which is 169 days short of the shortest historical gain in the table. It is also between 6-7 months shorter than the average historical gain. Also notice the average gain has been 122% or 80% more than the current gain. If the S&P GSCI Cocoa only gained in this bull run as much as the smallest trough to peak gain, it would still add another 38.0%, but if the gain were as big as the biggest gain in the 2000-2003 period, it has another 188.4% to go. However, if we look at the high that occurred in Feb 2011, it is only 24.9% greater than today’s level, which means it wouldn’t be surprising to see cocoa break a record high, especially given the supportive fundamentals.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and/or its affiliates. Data from Jan 1998 to Feb 2014. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This chart reflects hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosure at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with backtested performance.
About Jodie Gunzberg
Jodie M. Gunzberg is vice president at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Jodie is responsible for the product management of S&P DJI Commodity Indices, which include the S&P GSCI® and DJ-UBS Commodities Index, the most widely recognized commodity benchmarks in the world. Both indices represent the global commodity market and are most commonly used for the historical benefits of inflation protection and diversification to stocks and bonds.
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