After plunging in 2013, exchange traded funds backed by physical holdings of silver have participated in the precious metals rebound in 2014. Including Tuesday’s action, the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) and the ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSEArca: SIVR) are up just over 1% year-to-date.
On Monday, silver futures traded up to three-week highs, helping lift SLV and SIVR to gains of more than 5% just since Jan. 31. The two ETFs have been testing their 50-day exponential moving averages but have not been able to break above the trend line. [Silver ETFs Rise to Multi-Week Highs]
Seasonal factors could ignite some profit taking in silver in the coming weeks.
“Silver has a tendency to peak in February, most notably so in 1980 when the Hunt Brothers’ plot to corner the silver market was foiled. Our seasonal study shows that selling on or about February 20 and holding until about April 25 has worked 31 times in the last 41 years for a win probability of 75.6%,” according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
The short silver in late February trade worked in spectacular fashion last year as SLV lost 15% from Feb. 21, 2013 to April 29, 2013. The ProShares UltraShort Silver (NYSEArca: ZSL) did its job, rising 30% over the same time frame.