GDX does not track the Gold Bugs Index. Rather, the ETF tracks the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM), a modified market capitalization-weighted index that combines 36 large-, mid- and small-cap companies. Top holdings in GDX include Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) and Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).
Charts from Kimble below illustrate encouraging technical patterns in ABX and Silver Wheaton. That is good news for GDX because Barrick and Silver Wheaton are the ETF’s largest and fourth-largest holdings, respectively, combining for 19.3% of the fund’s weight.
Noting that some investors are emotional about gold and the miners, Kimble said he isn’t trying “to be a zealot one way or the other,” but added that “it’s intriguing to do the bottom-fishing with something that has done terribly over the past three years.”
That is the case with GDX. The fund has plunged almost 61% over the past 36 months, and some investors are attached to the ETF as it was inflow positive last year even as physically-backed gold funds bled assets. [Miners Buck Gold Outflow Trend]
Despite the success in 2014, investors have pulled almost $217 million from GDX.
The outflows may not mean much. Not with once-a-generation sentiment applicable to miners and the group being anointed by some as the ultimate rebound trade for 2014. Paraphrasing Sir John Templeton, Kimble said “Bull markets are born in pessimism and die in euphoria. I love scouring those stages.” With GDX, perhaps other market participants are already embracing the pessimism.