“Late in economic cycles, when capital is least needed by borrowers, it is most readily available from banks,” Rekenthaler said. “Conversely, money tightens, sometimes to the point of unavailability, during recessions, when risk avoidance becomes the prime goal. This of course is when capital is most needed.”
So far this year, speculation of Fed tapering has already pressured emerging market bond ETFs. For instance, the iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NYSEArca: EMB) is down 8% year-to-date, PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio (NYSEArca: PCY) is down 10.7% year-to-date and Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSEArca: EMLC) is down 8.6% year-to-date.
Meanwhile, emerging market stock ETFs have not fared any differently, with the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: VWO) down 6.5% year-to-date and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: EEM) down 7.3% year-to-date. [Value Factors and Emerging Markets ETFs]
For more information on developing economies, visit our emerging markets category.
Max Chen contributed to this article.