Using the Dow’s run-up in the mid to late 1990s as an example, the blue chip index surged from its post-early 1990s recession lows, but all of those gains and then some were given back when the tech bubble burst the economy soured earlier this century.
An extended view of Dow history paints an even more concerning picture. There were two periods in which the Dow more than tripled in five years: During the Roaring 1920s and in the days leading up to the Great Depression.
DIA is still a long way from tripling off its post-crisis lows and that may not be a bad thing. The potential for further gains exists given the increasing weight to cyclical, higher-beta fare within the Dow. That is if the U.S. economy cooperates. [Changes Coming for Dow ETF]
Chart courtesy: BlackRock. Click to enlarge.
