The government shutdown has the markets scrambling, and a looming U.S. default on debt has left many Treasury bond exchange traded fund investors scratching their heads.
According to a recent J.P. Morgan survey, investors are still divided on how long-term U.S. Treasuries will react to a U.S. technical default, Sober Look points out.
Some bond investors believe that long-term rates could fall with people turning to safe-haven Treasuries as the economy and equity markets take a beating in a deflationary period. Consequently, long-term U.S. debt will see nominal yields decline even as real yields remain positive.
Long-term Treasury bond ETFs like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEArca: TLT) could benefit from falling interest rates.