Given the copious global supply, coffee prices could remain near its five-year low, but exchange traded fund investors can still watch for potential catalysts that could tip the balance.
“With global production remaining high, we believe the current price is justified, but we are watching a number of catalysts that could drive prices higher,” Nitesh Shah, Associate Director of Research at ETF Securities, said in a research note.
Specifically, Shah pointed to any rise in rust fungus and potential crop damage, intervention from the Brazilian government could absorb supply, or a stronger Brazilian real, which could encourage farmers to hold-off exports.
“We believe that coffee prices will be less sensitive to weather conditions in Brazil now that the Brazilian 2013/14 harvest is largely complete,” Shah added. “Weather conditions elsewhere will also have a diffused impact on prices because production is fragmented in the countries that start their harvest in October.”
Brazil accounts for about a third of the global coffee supply.