Treasury Inflation Protected Securities ETFs have rebounded, moving back above their short-term trend line for the first time since May after being hammered by rising yields and diminishing inflationary expectations.
The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEArca: TIP) was relatively flat Monday, but it has gained 0.7% in the last week and 1.9% over the past month. TIP has also crossed over its 50-day simple moving average, trading about 0.6% above its short-term trend. [Vanguard: Timing TIPS]
The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NSYEArca: IEF) has a similar weighted average maturity as TIP. IEF was 0.3% over the last week and up 1% over the past month, which suggests that TIP’s outperformance may be partly attributed to rising inflationary trends.
On Tuesday, the markets will be watching for the import and export price data. The import price indices are compiled for prices on foreign goods brought into the U.S. while export price indices show prices on U.S. goods sold abroad. Both prices reveal inflationary trends in the international market.
Import prices dipped 0.2% in June, the fourth monthly negative reading, according to Bloomberg data. Petroleum import prices, though, rose 0.2% and could continue into July given the sharp rise rise in crude oil. Excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.3% for the second consecutive month.
Observers will also be focusing on the producer price index reading Wednesday. The PPI is a measure of the average price level on a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods on prices received by producers.
In June, the PPI rose 0.8% after a 0.5% increase in May. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% after a 0.1% rise.
Market watchers will also focus on the consumer price index data Thursday. The CPI represents the rate of inflation.