Last week the gold price fell as better-than-expected US jobs data spurred a rally in the dollar and accelerated demand for cyclical equities.
In our view, fears the Fed will reel back its quantitative easing program in a significant manner in the near term are overblown given that nonfarm payroll additions need to be over 200K per month in order to drive a meaningful decline in the unemployment rate (the unemployment rate in fact rose last month) and the inability of the US economy/financial system to handle a sustained significant rise in bond yields.
India’s latest actions to curb gold demand also dealt a blow to the gold price last week.
Platinum and palladium, on the other hand, defied dollar appreciation and rose 3% and 1% respectively as South Africa supply concerns continue to grow and auto demand appears robust. Silver, traded broadly flat over the week as mixed economic data tore the metal’s industrial and store of value properties in opposite directions. To the degree that the global industrial recovery continues and South Africa supply issues remain unresolved, we expect the PGMs to continue to outperform gold and silver.