The Brazilian economy has disappointed investors for the short term, however, factors are supporting a turnaround in the performance of the country and exchange traded fund. Long term investors will gain exposure to the ongoing growth forecast for the country this year as economic fundamentals fall into place.
“Brazil’s Bovespa index lost 1.8 percent to the lowest level since Dec. 13. Oil producer OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes SA drove declines on the gauge, sinking 7.8 percent in the biggest slump since Aug. 29.,” Victoria Stilwell and Ian Sayson wrote for Bloomberg BusinessWeek. [The Winners and Losers in BRIC ETFs]
Brazil’s economy can make a comeback, as the Central Bank recently cut rates 5.25% over the past year and a half. Both the economy and equity market should be able to display the effects of this added liquidity, reports Gary Gordon for ETF Expert. Also, the government has lowered taxes and is pumping capital into the infrastructure reform in order to get ready for the Summer games in 2016. Furthermore, the government is taking steps to regulate the financial and energy sectors. [Falling Investment Cripples Brazil ETFs, Economy]
The currency has also suffered, as evidenced by the WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real (NYSEArca: BZF). The Brazilian real has lost about 7% against the U.S. dollar, however, Gordon reports the technical indicators for the currency are signaling a bullish run in the near future. A stronger real could dampen the export market, but this is the least of concern at this time.The iShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSEArca: EWZ) is also signaling a bullish trend. [ETF Spotlight: Currencies]
The Brazilian consumer is in recovery mode, as employment is still strong, wages are rising and the drop in interest rates should help domestic spending. Although there is not a bull market for the country yet, the fundamental signs are in place for a recovery.