U.S. Treasury ETFs are facing a key trend line and a breakout to the upside will likely spell pain in equities and a resumption of the risk-off trade, according to technical analysts.

Stock and U.S. Treasury ETFs often move in opposite directions, although that relationship was disrupted at times last week.

From a technical perspective, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TLT) is currently dealing with some key resistance lines: the 50-day simple moving average and a falling trend line. [Who’s Lying: Treasury or Stock ETFs?]

The Treasury ETF is paying a 30-day SEC yield of 2.7%. The bond fund is up 4.3% year to date but has shed 3.7% the past three months, according to Morningstar.

TLT is cracking falling trend line resistance off the late July high, says Investors Intelligence analyst Tarquin Coe.

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