U.S. stock exchange traded funds were enjoying a big rally Monday following a string of losses but are still on track for a down November on lingering Eurozone debt worries.
With three trading sessions left in the month, investors are already looking ahead to December and the chances for a “Santa Claus rally.”
“On Thursday, we turn the page on the calendar and enter the month that boasts the best average performance for the S&P 500 since 1945, 1970 or 1990, missing out only to July by one basis point (1.48% vs. 1.49%) since 1929,” said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, in a note Monday.
“Indeed, since WWII, the S&P 500 rose an average 1.8%, which is more than twice the average amount for all 12 months of the year,” he wrote. “In addition, the S&P 500 rose most often in December than in any other month, posting a 77% frequency of advance in December versus an average 59% for all 12 months. Also encouraging is that whenever the S&P 500 fell in November, it rose 1.7% in December, and advanced in price 77% of the time.”
The iShares S&P 500 (NYSEArca: IVV) rose 2.7% before Monday’s opening bell. The ETF was down 7.3% for November heading into the session. [Stock ETFs Rally on Europe Hopes, Retail Sales]
“Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And now more than ever, investors are probably more skeptical of historical trends, as we are living in unprecedented times,” Stovall warned.