Exchange traded funds indexed to the S&P 500 moved lower Monday in volatile action. S&P 500 targets from technical and fundamental analysts run the gamut amid uncertainty over the global economic recovery and Europe’s persistent debt crisis.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 reveals a possibly steep correction in the broader market and ETFs, according to a report Monday.
According to Mary Ann Bartels at Bank of America’s (NYSE: BAC) Merrill Lynch, movements in the S&P 500 indicate a strong price correction of up to 21%, reports Julie Cruz for Bloomberg.
Bartels calculates that the index is at risk of dropping to between 1,020 and 1,100, or the Fibonacci levels that include a 50% and 38.2% price retracement of the recent bull market. She also cautions that further losses may drag the S&P 500 to between 910 and 985. The S&P 500 currently sits just below 1,150. [Technical Traders Eye S&P 500 ETF ‘Flag’]
“Unfortunately, nothing in our work suggests that the market is improving,” according to a BofA note. “More importantly, we are more concerned now that the downside risk could be more than we originally forecast.”
Bartels previously stated that the S&P 500 required a 1,250 base to maintain a bull market momentum or risk dropping 17% from this year’s peak. In August, the index fell 16% off its April highs.