“In addition, both left-wing Democrats and right-wing Republicans may vote against the measure, suggesting that, if the deal is not passed, it will be hard to find a modification which could get through Congress,” Kelly wrote in a note Monday. “So while global markets should react positively to final passage of a deal, a negative vote in either the House or the Senate could lead to a ‘TARP moment’ with a severe stock market sell-off.”

Investors will also be waiting to see if major ratings agencies such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch downgrade their ratings on U.S. government bonds.

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

Full disclosure: Tom Lydon’s clients own GLD and SLV.