It’s hard to tell where the market and exchange traded funds (ETFs) are headed these days. The bears are clamoring for safe havens in U.S. Treasuries and commodities, while the bulls are clinging onto any positive economic news they can lay their hands on. The S&P 500 is up almost 40% from March 2009, but year-to-date, it is down almost 10%.

That’s why investors have made gold one of the hottest things on the market right now.

According to Claus Vogt of Money and Markets, “Dubious monetary policy and irresponsible fiscal policy with government debt rising all over the world are a surefire recipe for a surging demand in gold.” [Gold ETFs Hitting New Highs.]

Vogt doesn’t like that he’s bullish on gold because it reflects lousy economic and political conditions. One indicator that Vogt focuses on is a leading indicator released by the Economic Research Institute. Last week, that indicator declined to minus 5.7%. Now, it’s down even more to minus 6.9%. [Why Investors Have Gold ETFs on the Brain.]