Typically small-cap shares and exchange traded funds (ETFs) lead the way out of recessions. This time around, though, large-caps have swooped in and regained favor among risk-averse investors.
The broad market rally that began March was initially led by small-caps, but a shift has given large-caps a place in the spotlight. What happened?
- Donna Kardos Yesalavich for The Wall Street Journal reports that small-caps were hit the hardest on the way down, because of the perception they are risky, given their lower liquidity, lack of international exposure and higher trading volatility. (Reasons why both large and small-cap ETFs can round out a portfolio). As a result, small-caps got so cheap that investors snapped them up in droves. The interest drove prices back up to their highest valuations since 1996, putting large-caps back in favor.
- Large-caps may also get a boost from their stability, something investors are still seeking as the markets recover. (Read about the small cap ETF rally here). As a result of the shift, John Spence for The Wall Street Journal notes that the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (NYSEArca: IWM) saw $1 billion in outflows in October. It brought in $2.2 billion in the previous three months.
- Profits for smaller companies are also expected to be slower in the fourth quarter, reports Lynn Thomasson and Sapna Maheshwari for Bloomberg. Earnings from small companies are projected to increase 38%, about half as fast as S&P 500 income. (Ways to play a large-cap rally.)
For more stories about asset class ETFs, visit our asset class category.
- SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY): up 23.6% year-to-date
- S&P 500 Growth (NYSEArca: IVW): up 28.3% year-to-date
- S&P Small Cap 600 (NYSEArca: IJR): up 17.7% year-to-date
- S&P Small Cap 600 Growth (NYSEArca: IJT): up 20.2% year-to-date
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.