China may be on the right track and its stimulus package is starting to show some results in its economy and related exchange traded funds (ETFs).

The stimulus package provided may be smaller than the previously stated $586 billion, or 14% of GDP, but it is still the world’s largest, according to Economist. The measure of a fiscal stimulus is the result of a change in budget deficit adjusted for the impact of an economic cycle.

  • On top of a fiscal stimulus, China will be providing public infrastructure investments done by state-owned entities. It is estimated that infrastructure investments, tax cuts, consumer subsidies, health care spending, and bank-financed infrastructure spending would amount to 4% of GDP.
  • China has been boosting domestic demand by investing in railways, roads, and power grids. Total fixed investments in the first two months this year was 30% higher in real terms from a year earlier. Investment in railways tripled.
  • The monetary easing has succeeded with bank lending increasing by 24% over the past year. It is seen that China is one of few countries that has accelerated credit flows since the credit crunch.
  • Exports still fell 26% in the first two months this year and may still fall further. Industrial production diminished 3.8% and retail-sales growth dropped 15% in the beginning two months. But It is still expected that the stimulus will achieve its goal of 8% growth this year and the government has announced it will support the economy with another fiscal boost if the matter should arrive.
  • iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI): up 10.2% in the last week; down 2% in the last month; down 11.8% in the last three months; note that FXI is above its 50-day moving average

ETF FXI performance

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.