With the markets and exchange traded funds (ETFs) getting socked by near-daily bad news, you might be wondering how Pollyanna did it. Wasn’t she exhausted?
How can you stay optimistic when:
- Oil keeps hitting new records, past $143 a barrel this morning.
- U.S. automakers report their June sales figures, and if recent news is any indication, it’s not going to be pretty.
- The Labor Department is expected to announce that employment shrank for the sixth consecutive month in June.
- Chief Investment Officer for Advisers Capital Management Charles Lieberman says a 20% decline is considered a bear market – not a mere correction, reports Amy Scott for Marketplace.
The thing is, you have to look for the good, and that’s not always so easy to do. This is the beauty of trend following. Some things are down, other things are up. Even when many areas are looking tore up from the floor up, there are other areas still showing strong performance. You just have to be looking for them, because there are a number of ETFs hanging out above their 200-day moving averages, including:
- Mid-caps have been outperforming their small- and large-cap siblings so far this year, and the iShares S&P MidCap 400 Growth Index (IJK) is 1.2% above its trend-line.
- Commodities have been solid year-to-date as countries develop and bad weather destroys crops around the world. Among the funds above their trend lines are the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC), 28.1% above its line, and the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Tracking ETN (DJP), 17% above its line.
- You may have noticed oil-related ETFs have been getting some attention. United States Oil (USO) is 35% above its line, SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES) is 20.9% above and PowerShares DB Energy (DBE) is 35.6% above.
- Since new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev took office, the Market Vectors Russia (RSX) has delivered some solid numbers, and it’s currently resting 8.7% above its trend line.
- As the U.S. dollar falls in value, two funds in particular have benefited: the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE), which is 5.2% above its trend line, and the CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF), 5.9% above its line.
- Market Vectors Steel (SLX) has benefited from a global need for the metal as more emerging markets modernize with new buildings and bridges. The fund is 16.8% above its trend line. The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining (XME) is 26% above its trend line, as well.
See? Now turn that frown upside down.
For full disclosure, some of Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of RSX, IJK and DJP.
Read the disclaimer, as Tom Lydon is a board member of Rydex Funds.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Lydon serves as an independent trustee of certain mutual funds and ETFs that are managed by Guggenheim Investments; however, any opinions or forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Mr. Lydon and not those of Guggenheim Funds, Guggenheim Investments, Guggenheim Specialized Products, LLC or any of their affiliates. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.