Can the future of the greenback be foretold by indicators such as crude oil, the stock market and exchange traded funds (ETFs)?
The U.S. dollar has suffered the brunt of the latest credit meltdown, and Jack Crooks for Money and Markets says this negative impact is reflected in the price action of the stock market. It appears the dollar and related stocks are moving in unison, so when the dollar goes up, so do stocks, and when the dollar goes down, well, you get the idea.
The stock market is now at a critical point, and this is evidenced by the Dow Transportation Average reaching a new high, and the Dow Industrials headed for a possible downturn. Crooks feels that if the Dow hits below 12,715 (it’s at 13,007.4) the overall stock market could fall hard.
The latest action in the crude market is also reflecting this possibility. As oil goes up, the dollar moves down. So the big question looms, "Will crude go much higher?"
If the trend as of now continues in commodities and the stock market breaks down, new lows in the dollar are possible.
Investors feeling bearish on the dollar can capture exposure to a number of currency ETFs, including:
- WisdomTree Dreyfus Euro Fund (EU), launched on May 22
- CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE), up 9.6% year-to-date
- CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF), up 11.2% year-to-date
- PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest (DBV), down 1.8% year-to-date
- PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (UDN), up 7.1% year-to-date
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Lydon serves as an independent trustee of certain mutual funds and ETFs that are managed by Guggenheim Investments; however, any opinions or forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Mr. Lydon and not those of Guggenheim Funds, Guggenheim Investments, Guggenheim Specialized Products, LLC or any of their affiliates. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.