The numbers lag slightly and the definitions can be off. The reporting of e-commerce data is behind by a month, meaning that holiday sales reports leave out the 7% revenue from online shoppers – the fastest-growing segment.
The only reliable metric these days, according to Johnson, is an inverse relationship to the price of gasoline: as fuel prices go up, consumer sentiment goes down and vice-versa.
Retail ETFs are down in intraday trading and are off so far this year:
- Retail HOLDRs (RTH), down 6%
- SPDR S&P Retail (XRT), down 8.9%
- Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), down 6.9%
