Are Stock ETFs Replaying the 1998 Russian Debt Crisis?
March 2nd 2012 at 11:12am by John Spence
One technical analyst sees similarities between the current market and the Russian debt crisis of 1998, when stocks consolidated at a previous high before launching into a multiyear rally.
“The 2011 correction and subsequent recovery is now looking very similar to the Russia debt crisis of 1998,” says Investors Intelligence analyst Tarquin Coe.
“For that period the index consolidated at the prior high before commencing an advance which culminated at the 2000 market top, a 68% rally off the crisis low. The rally so far off the Euro region debt crisis low in October has been 28%,” he wrote in a recent newsletter. “History never repeats exactly but the similarity so far between the two cases is striking and given the stubbornness of the market over recent weeks we can no longer ignore this bullish possibility.”
The blue-chip index has cleared the 2011 high “but the breakout needs to prove itself by holding or at least consolidating over the next few weeks,” Coe said. [S&P 500 ETFs Surpass April 2011 High]
Some key resistance points above current levels for the S&P 500 include 1400 and 1440, the analyst said. “Clearing those would likely result in a test of the all-time high of 1576 from October 2007 but that of course could take some time, with plenty of backing and filling on the way,” Coe added. [Transportation ETFs Send a Warning]
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of John Spence, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.