Stock ETFs Falter on Recession Forecasts
October 3rd 2011 at 4:01pm by Tom Lydon
U.S. stock exchange traded funds stumbled into the fourth quarter amid predictions the economy it tilting toward another recession.
The economy is moving toward a double-dip recession, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute. On Friday, the ECRI warned of an unavoidable impending recession, according to a report.
The warning is based on a dozen specialized leading indices, such as the U.S. Long Leading Index, Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indices. Most forward-looking indicators are leaning toward a recession, instead of a “soft landing.”
“The U.S. economy is tipping into a new recession,” Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer at ECRI, commented on a radio interview, reports Liz Capo McCormick for Bloomberg. “You have wildfire among the leading indicators across the board. Non-financial services plunging, manufacturing plunging, exports plunging. That is such a deadly combination.”
The ECRI previously predicted that the country would be experiencing a longstanding pattern of slowing growth. Additionally, the institute believes that we are heading toward a period of frequent recessions due to higher cyclical volatility and lower trend growth.
“We at least have a couple of quarters of worsening economy in front of us,” Achuthan added. “So if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet.”
The iShares S&P 500 (NYSEArca: IVV) was down nearly 3% as the S&P 500 closed below 1,100 on Monday.
Max Chen contributed to this article.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.