The iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWW), the largest ETF dedicated to Mexican equities, is up nearly 5% this year and more gains could be on the way for benchmark Mexico ETF if seasonal patterns hold true to form.
Speculation is swirling about the U.S. and its place in NAFTA with some market observers assessing the possibility of the U.S. withdrawing from the free trade accord. That move is potentially devastating for Mexico’s economy.
EWW “has endured a rockier year than most other funds, amid concerns that President Trump will pull out of NAFTA. After topping out at a two-year high of $57.82 in late August, EWW staged a retreat, ultimately finding support in the $48 area — a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fund’s 2017 low to high,” according to Schaeffer’s Investment Research.
EWW allocates almost a quarter of its weight to consumer staples with telecom and financial services names combining for nearly a third of the ETF’s weight. Historical data indicate the time is right to consider EWW.
“Although uncertainty about NAFTA is still in the air, it’s worth noting that the Mexico-centered ETF tends to rally in a big way in March. The fund has averaged a monthly gain of 5.1% since inception — more than double the second-best month of the year (December). That’s followed by an average April gain of 1.9%,” reports Schaeffer’s.