The Stupidity of “Smart Money”

By Jay Mooreland via

Calpers, one of the largest and most respected pensions in the world, is sounding desperate. At a recent board meeting, their Chief Investment Officer said, “We need private equity, we need more of it, and we need it now.”

Why do they need more private equity, and right now? Because they are facing a potential funding shortfall. In other words, they had rosy assumptions of returns that haven’t come to pass. And being the astute investors that they are (note the sarcasm), they are looking at what performed best in the past and investing more in it.

The Wall Street Journal reports that private equity has been Calpers’ best performing asset class over the last decade.

The Insanity of This Thinking

The urgency is concerning. The desperation in their words is typical of novice investors, not the big “smart money”. The Chief Investment Officer went on to explain, “We need more of it to increase our probability of success, and we need it sooner rather than later.”

The board recognizes that this increases their risk, but they have to try for it…at least that is the thinking. Large pensions and endowments don’t have specific maturity or retirement dates as do individual investors. This is a significant reason why individual investors shouldn’t mimic the “smart money” – they are on different playing fields.

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