The capital markets are over a week removed from the U.S. Federal Reserve keeping rates steady, but now they’re anticipating the next poker tell that would signal a rate cut. However, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says it’s not in the cards just yet.
In particular, Kaplan referred to the bond markets ringing the alarm on an inverted yield curve.
Fears of an inverted yield curve racked the markets during 2018’s fourth quarter sell-off, but they returned last week as the short-term 3-month and longer-term 10-year yield curve did as such–unveil an inversion that hasn’t been seen since 2007–just ahead of the financial crisis.
The spread between the 3-month and 10-year notes fell below 10 basis points for the first time in over a decade.
“I’d need to see an inversion of some magnitude and/or some duration, and right now we don’t have either,” said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan in an interview.
Though the former did manage to appear, Kaplan wants to see the inversion occur for an extended duration prior to considering a rate cut of any sort.
“If you see an inversion that goes on for several months…that’s a different kettle of fish,” he said. “We’re not there yet.”
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