“Much of our work shows that wage inflation tends to lead other kinds of inflation,” said Sameer Samana, a global investment and technical strategist for the Wells Fargo investment Institute.
“I think if you did get a number above 3.3 percent (wage growth), markets would probably start to worry a little bit more about a more hawkish Fed,” Samana added. “From that standpoint, it would put the Fed on notice (that) things are starting to overheat at the margin.”
Meanwhile, U.S. equities have been a paragon of volatility as of late with the Dow whipsawing investors on Thursday with a decline of 785 points before erasing the losses to settle for a decline of just under 80 points. Through Thursday, the Dow and S&P 500 have both shed 2.3 percent, while the Nasdaq has fallen just under 2 percent.
“You’ve gone from a period of zero sensitivity to headlines to a period of hypersensitivity,” said James Athey, senior investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “We’re now in a world where no one knows which way is up and which way is down.”
CME Group’s FedWatch algorithm now shows a 76.6% chance of a rate hike in December after showing a 100% probability less than a week ago.
Related: The Doves Are Circling Above a December Rate Hike
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