Last week’s stock sell-off that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall by 1,300 points in two consecutive sessions may have taken the focus off rising yields temporarily, but they returned to the forefront to start this week’s trading session.
The benchmark 10-year note edged higher to 3.158, while the 30-year yield rose to 3.336. Shorter duration yields also ticked higher with the 2-year reaching 2.857 and the 5-year rising to 3.012.
Just a week ago, the benchmark 10-year note reached its highest level since 2011 as market analysts pointed to the surge in rates as a factor for the latest declines in U.S. equities. The effects of last week’s sell-off appear to be subsiding as the Dow posted a 70-point gain as of 2:00 p.m. ET to follow up it’s almost 300-point gain last Friday.
“There are only a handful of moments in the Treasury market in which the price action itself is the story and the experience of the last several weeks represents such an occurrence,” said Ian Lyngen and Jon Hill, rates strategists at BMO Capital Markets.
“Investors offered a collective ‘ah ha!’ as it relates to Fed hikes, growth, and supply – (but) we continue to suspect something more pedestrian is at hand,” the strategist added. “By this, we simply mean that this year’s ‘big trade’ was timing the backup in long-end yields.”
Mild Increase in Retail Sales
September saw a mild rise in retail sales, edging higher by 0.1% based on the latest data released by the Commerce Department–a 0.6% rise was forecasted by a Reuters poll of economists.
Automobile vehicle sales posted a rebound, but its gains were offset by the biggest drop in spending at restaurants and bars in nearly two years. Nonetheless, retail sales did rise by 4.6% compared to a year ago.
“The net result still appears to be a fairly strong quarter for consumer spending growth,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York.
“Higher rates can dampen consumer spending and bite into corporate profits,” said Nathan Slaughter of StreetAuthority. “Given that this record bull market has been fueled in large part by accommodative monetary policy and dirt-cheap capital, there is a fear that rising rates could end the party.”
For more trends in fixed income, visit the Rising Rates Channel.