As far as specifics go, survey respondents see the Federal Reserve raising the federal funds rate another 25 basis points this week and an additional 25 in December, which would leave rates at 2.5.
Furthermore, survey respondents forecast an increase of 50 more basis points in 2019, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 2.75 to 3%. The data then begins to show divergences in thought with half of the respondents eyeing a third hike in 2019–60% see the Fed raising rates above neutral to slow down the pace of the economy.
All in all, the average of respondents see the federal funds rate at 3.3% once the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates.
“This means that the U.S. bond market will reach a decision point sometime in the next year, when market participants will have to decide whether the Fed will go beyond current market pricing,” said Tony Crescenzi, executive vice president at Pimco. “If and when it does, U.S. Treasuries will move higher.”
For more trends in fixed income, visit the Rising Rates Channel.