“I think rates should be 4 percent today,” said Dimon. “You better be prepared to deal with rates 5 percent or higher — it’s a higher probability than most people think.”
Not since 2006 has Treasury yields reached the 5% mark, which occurred prior to the financial crisis tin 2008. Like Barkin, Dimon’s prediction stems from signs of a robust economy, especially with the Commerce Department announcing a 4.1% increase in GDP during the second quarter, which was spurned by a mix of tax cuts, deregulation and spending increases.
The Fed expects GDP to rise 2.8 percent for 2018 in the aggregate, but diminish to 2.4 percent in 2019 followed by 2 percent in 2020. Furthermore, the prevailing notion in the capital markets is that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC are set to raise interest rates two more times through 2018.
Related: Possible Carnage in the Bond Market
For more trends in fixed income, visit the Rising Rates Channel..