Analysts Predict S&P 500® Will End Year Slightly Higher | ETF Trends

A better-than-expected earnings season alongside lighter inflation reports from July drove stocks to rally in mid-August, and analysts anticipate that the S&P 500® will end 2022 at levels slightly above its rally from bear-market lows in June.

A median forecast of 50 strategists polled by Reuters puts the S&P 500®, an index comprised of approximately 500 leading U.S. companies, ending the year around 4,280, a drop from the end of May forecast of 4,400 but somewhat above mid-August levels around 4,135. What’s more, the strategists polled anticipate that the S&P 500 will go on to make gains in 2023, reaching 4,408 by the middle of the year, calculated from the median forecast.

While there isn’t a strong track record of successfully predicting market movement by analysts, the strategist forecasts are good indicators of general investing sentiment at the time the polls are conducted.

More than half of the strategists that Reuters polled are anticipating greater downside risk for the remainder of the year than upside potential, with an increase in volatility over the next three months.

“Toward the end of the year, we could begin to rally. The Fed is not going to get overly aggressive. I see signs of inflation coming down, and I believe the labor market will soon begin to weaken, and that should alleviate the Fed from getting overly aggressive,” Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, told Reuters.

A strategy for advisors looking for investment opportunities within equities for their clients is the Nationwide S&P 500® Risk-Managed Income ETF (NSPI), which seeks current income with a measure of downside protection.

NSPI is an actively managed ETF that follows a rules-based options trading strategy that seeks to generate high current income every month and invests in stocks included in the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index consists of approximately 500 leading U.S.-listed companies representing approximately 80% of the U.S. equity market capitalization.

The fund also utilizes an options collar in seeking to generate monthly income. A collar strategy entails holding shares of an underlying security while simultaneously buying protective put options as well as writing calls for the same security. A put option gives its owner the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a specific price on a specific day, while a call option gives its owner the right but not the obligation to buy the asset instead.

The options collar is intended to reduce the fund’s volatility and provide a measure of downside protection.

For more news, information, and strategy, visit our Retirement Income Channel.


This article was prepared as part of Nationwide’s paid sponsorship of ETF Trends.

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Call 1-800-617-0004 to request a summary prospectus and/or a prospectus. You may also download the prospectus at the link above or by visiting etf.nationwide.com. These prospectuses outline investment objectives, risks, fees, charges and expenses, and other information that you should read and consider carefully before investing.

KEY RISKS: Nationwide S&P 500® Risk-Managed Income ETF is subject to the risks of investing in equity securities, including tracking stock (a class of common stock that “tracks” the performance of a unit or division within a larger company). A tracking stock’s value may decline even if the larger company’s stock increases in value. The Risk-Managed Income ETFs are subject to the risks of investing in foreign securities (currency fluctuations, political risks, differences in accounting, and limited availability of information, all of which are magnified in emerging markets).

The Risk-Managed Income ETFs may invest in more-aggressive investments such as derivatives (which create investment leverage and illiquidity and are highly volatile). The Risk-Managed Income ETFs employ a collared options strategy (using call and put options is speculative and can lead to losses because of adverse movements in the price or value of the reference asset). The success of the Risk-Managed Income ETFs’ investment strategy may depend on the effectiveness of the subadviser’s quantitative tools for screening securities and on data provided by third parties. The Risk-Managed Income ETFs expect to invest a portion of their assets to replicate the holdings of an index. Correlation between Fund performance and index performance may be affected by Fund expenses because the Fund may not be invested fully in the securities of the index or may hold securities not included in the index.

The Risk-Managed Income ETFs frequently may buy and sell portfolio securities and other assets to rebalance their exposure to various market sectors. Higher portfolio turnover may result in higher levels of transaction costs paid by the Risk-Managed Income ETFs and greater tax liabilities for shareholders. The Risk-Managed Income ETFs may concentrate on specific sectors or industries, subjecting them to greater volatility than that of other ETFs. The Risk-Managed Income ETFs may hold large positions in a small number of securities, and an increase or decrease in the value of such securities may have a disproportionate impact on the Funds’ value and total return. Although the Risk-Managed Income ETFs intend to invest in a variety of securities and instruments, the Risk-Managed Income ETFs will be considered non-diversified.

Additional risks include: Collared options strategy risk, correlation risk, derivatives risk, foreign investment risk, and industry concentration risk.

The Fund expects to invest a portion of its assets to replicate the holdings of an index. Correlation between Fund performance and index performance may be affected by Fund expenses because the Fund may not be invested fully in the securities of the index or may hold securities not included in the index. The Fund frequently may buy and sell portfolio securities and other assets to rebalance its exposure to various market sectors. Higher portfolio turnover may result in higher levels of transaction costs paid by the Fund and greater tax liabilities for shareholders. The Fund may concentrate on specific sectors or industries, subjecting it to greater volatility than that of other ETFs. The Fund may hold large positions in a small number of securities, and an increase or decrease in the value of such securities may have a disproportionate impact on the Fund’s value and total return. Although the Fund intends to invest in a variety of securities and instruments, the Fund will be considered nondiversified. Additional Fund risk includes: Collared options strategy risk, correlation risk, derivatives risk, foreign investment risk, and industry concentration risk.

S&P 500® Index: An unmanaged, market capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks of leading large-cap U.S. companies in leading industries; gives a broad look at the U.S. equities market and those companies’ stock price performance.

The S&P 500® index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC or its affiliates (“SPDJI”), and has been licensed for use by Nationwide Fund Advisors. Standard & Poor’s®, S&P®, and S&P 500® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”); Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by SPDJI and sublicensed for certain purposes by Nationwide Fund Advisors. The Nationwide S&P 500® Risk-Managed Income ETF (“NSPI”) is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, or their respective affiliates, and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the S&P 500® Index.

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