New Homes Sales to households provides a clearer picture. The measure at 426 is below any prior measure prior to a recession. The measure peaked 2 ½ years at 1,182 prior to the 2008/2009 recession. The lead was also 2 ½ years prior to the 2001 recession. The lead was 5 years prior to the 1991 recession.
Taking the average of these 3, the next recession is in early 2022.
Case-Shiller Home Prices
Lastly, the Case-Shiller home prices. Of the 20 cities reported, 10 have surpassed their housing market boom. Some are way past their prior peak, such as the über-booming Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas area.
Some cities are really booming, and probably need some of a breather. Other cities have many years of expansion left in them.
If one looks at the lead time housing starts, existing home sales, and new home sales provide for the economy, the 3 measures are saying the economy has at least another 3 years until a recession, and perhaps another 5.
>For more trends, visit the Portfolio Construction Channel