As if the latest market oscillations haven’t already been giving investors a thrilling ride on the volatility roller coaster the past couple of months, legendary investor, hedge fund manager and philanthropist Paul Tudor Jones advises investors to keep hanging on.
Market declines and gains have been anything, but two ships sailing in the night as volatility has been propelling the CBOE VIX index, a measuring stick of market movements, to stratospheric levels. According to Jones, who had the prescience to predict the ominous Black Monday in 1987, investors need to brace themselves for more volatility to come.
Source: tradingeconomics.com
“I think we’re going to see a lot more of what we just saw, which is a lot more volatility,” Jones told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin. “It’s really easy to say ‘I’m really bullish’ or ‘I’m really bearish.’ I kind of see a two-sided market.”
“I think in the next year it will be, from where we are today, … at least 10 percent down and 10 percent up; maybe 15 percent either way from where we are right now,” Jones added.
Jones was also keen to recognize the growing global debt levels, saying “we are probably sitting on a big global credit bubble,” he said. “I hope I’m not underestimating the impact the potential negative impact that popping that bubble (will have).”
As the latest bouts of volatility have been racking the stock markets, it has also affected the bond markets, particularly liquidity–the ability purchase and sell an asset within a reasonable amount of time. BBB bond markets are especially susceptible because institutional investors, who carry war chests full of capital that aid in liquidity, aren’t able to invest in these bonds if they become high yield or “junk” issues.
BBB bonds comprise almost 50% of the $5.8 trillion investment-grade bond market and a lack of liquidity could leave BBB bond investors holding the debt as it toes the line between investment grade and junk bond status–the worry, of course, being that it may eventually fall into the category of the latter.
Now, it appears that Asia is facing the same problem with investment-grade corporate debt down 1%, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal. Like the U.S., BBB bonds make up a good portion of investment-grade debt in Asia–44%–and they, too, are on the verge of a falling into high-yield or “junk” status.
A number of investors are worried that Moody’s Investors Service will take these Asia BBB bonds and knock them down a notch lower–the downgrade, of course, putting a majority of them into the less-than-investment-grade category.
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