Natural gas futures and related exchange traded funds climbed Monday as weather forecasts fueled the heating demand outlook.
The United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca: UNG) gained 3.7% Monday as Nymex natural gas futures rose 3.8% to $3.26 per million British thermal units.
Additionally, for the more aggressive traders, the three-times leveraged-long VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN (NYSEArca: UGAZ) surged 11.5% Thursday while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (NYSEArca: BOIL), which takes the two times or 200% daily performance of natural gas, advanced 7.3%.
Bespoke Weather Services sharply raised its gas-weighted degree day (GWDD) expectations for the next two weeks compared to its prior Friday’s forecasts on the colder weather outlook, Natural Gas Intelligence reports.
“Weather models did an about face this weekend, adding a very significant amount of heating demand in the short- and medium-range and showing lingering cold risks into the long-range,” according to Bespoke. “…We now look to have multiple shots of colder weather focused in the Midwest that gradually spread into the East and help pull GWDDs decently above even seasonal averages through the next 15 days. The result is a massive addition in heating demand expectations relative to Friday even as cooling demand expectations have dipped accordingly.”
Natural Gas Price Prediction
However, the weather service provider added that the cold burst may be short lived and won’t linger through the end of October or into November.
“We see short-term support all the way up toward the $3.25 level” as the market reacts to “sizably more GWDDs,” Bespoke said. “Any bullishness is limited by expectations that these cold shots are focused just over the next couple of weeks and should fade into the end of October. Also, production is back to record highs and we look for balances to further loosen through the coming week with another large injection.”
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Rising production out of the shale industry may cap natural gas prices. Genscape Inc. said its daily pipeline flow estimate revealed that the lower 48 states’ production setting a new record for the weekend.
“Growth was surging prior to these, though, as Northeast producers have been taking advantage of all the new capacity from the last year to begin working through their inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells,” Genscape senior natural gas analyst Rick Margolin said.
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