“As such, the natural gas markets will need to wait until around the start of the new year for the next opportunity for more impressive cold to arrive across the northern U.S., which the latest Sunday data teases. But this would require more convincing evidence considering it’s at the far end of the 15-day forecast,” the forecaster added.
Bespoke Weather Services also mirrored this sentiment, arguing that conditions leading to below average gas-weighted degree days will “likely to dominate” through the end of the month. Bespoke argued that temperatures will remain above average due to tropical forcing stalling across the Maritime Continent over the next two weeks, which will especially keep the East warmer.
“This will gradually break down Week 3 into Week 4 as cold should return to the East through the first half of January, though it will take time and at least for now the endings of model runs still do not show any kind of rapid transition back to significant cold,” Bespoke said.
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