“Historically, Monday of the holiday week has been positive less than half the time. Monday, however, has been bearish other weeks too, with the SPX averaging a daily loss over the past 50 years. Tuesday of Thanksgiving week has been relatively uneventful,” according to Schaeffer’s.
Since the mid-20th century, stocks have on average gained 17% in the year after a midterm. The results are even more noteworthy if one is measuring from the yearly midterm lows – from their lows, stocks surged an average 32% over the following 12 months.
“Thanksgiving-week outperformance has been due to the day before Thanksgiving and the day after. The Wednesday before Thanksgiving has been positive 78% of the time, averaging a gain of 0.30%. The day after Thanksgiving has averaged a 0.26% return over the past 50 years, while being positive 70% of the time,” notes Schaeffer’s.
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