This bodes well for Brazilians as the economy will be first and foremost on their minds since the country has been slow to recover after it experienced its worst recession to date. Unemployment levels remain high with double-digit figures and the country is drowning in public debt–74% of Brazil’s GDP.
“Bolsonaro’s win heralds big changes for Brazil, whose economy remains in a fragile state despite recovering from a 2015-2016 recession,” said Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at BlackRock, in a blog post. “Brazilian risk assets had rallied since Bolsonaro’s polling prospects started improving ahead of the first round of the election. Yet we see the decisive victory by Bolsonaro–widely perceived as more market friendly than his left-wing opponent Fernando Haddad–as largely priced in by financial markets.”
While the annual GDP growth has posted positive gains as of late, it’s still not at a level where economists are optimistic about the future growth prospects. Prior to the election, the ideal situation to address Brazil’s current financial woes was to elect a president who is market-friendly to help stymie the issues by effecting policies that favor economic expansion and growth–now, they potentially have that in Bolsonaro.
According to the latest Yahoo Finance performance numbers, BRZU is down 26.59% year-to-date, but up 22% the last three years. With a much-needed shock to its political system, Bolsnaro could be the solution that Brazil needs and if his policies materialize in an improving economy, the country and Brazil-focused ETFs like BRZU will both be beneficiaries.
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