“Some green shoots are emerging that suggest that sequential growth will pick up from here,” Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a note dated Feb. 26.
Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast on Monday, pointing to ongoing trade wars dampening China’s economic outlook as well as rising interest rates in the United States. The IMF trimmed its growth expectations to 3.5 percent from 3.7 percent. Global growth outlook for 2020 was also cut to 3.6 percent from 3.7 percent.
In the meantime, it’s not all rose-colored glasses for all. Over three-quarters of business economists are foreseeing a U.S. recession by the end of the year 2021, according to a semiannual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey released Monday.
The survey results show that 10 percent expected a recession at the beginning of this year, while 42 percent are expecting one within a year. Another 25 percent expect to see an economic contraction by the beginning of 2021 while the rest have no opinion or see a recession happening after 2021.
“We are prepared for a recession,” said Jamie Dimon, Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co.. “We’re not predicting a recession. We’re simply pointing out that we are very conscious about the risks we bear.”
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