We are currently overweight Eurozone stock markets across our asset allocation portfolios, and the majority of this overweight exposure is unhedged with respect to downside movements in the Euro relative to the US dollar. We admit that political outcomes are some of the most difficult to predict – see Trump, Brexit, and the surprise victory of Emmanuel Macron in France – and thus we will stay vigilant to how we might be wrong. Followers of Riverfront know we employ a disciplined risk management process that helps minimize tail risk during difficult-to-predict outcomes.
CONCLUSION: We recognize that political uncertainty in Italy will continue to be with us for the foreseeable future. While we are not complacent, we note that despite similar uncertainty associated with UK, Spanish, German and French politics over the past 18 months, European stock and currency markets have been able to break out to the upside as both the economy and corporate earnings have continued to positively surprise. We would also remind investors that a strengthening currency has historically been more associated with strong relative and absolute stock performance in Europe than a weak currency has been.
Important Disclosure Information:
The comments above refer generally to financial markets and not RiverFront portfolios or any related performance. Past results are no guarantee of future results and no representation is made that a client will or is likely to achieve positive returns, avoid losses, or experience returns similar to those shown or experienced in the past.
Information or data shown or used in this material is for illustrative purposes only and was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed.
When referring to being “overweight” or “underweight” relative to a market or asset class, RiverFront is referring to our current portfolios’ weightings compared with the portfolios’ composite benchmarks. For more information on our composite benchmarks, please visit our website: www.riverfrontig.com.
Portfolio weightings discussed are as of the date of this publication and subject to change.
RiverFront Investment Group, LLC, is an investment adviser registered with the Securities Exchange Commission under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The company manages a variety of portfolios utilizing stocks, bonds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). RiverFront also serves as sub-advisor to a series of mutual funds and ETFs. Opinions expressed are current as of the date shown and are subject to change. They are not intended as investment recommendations.
RiverFront is owned primarily by its employees through RiverFront Investment Holding Group, LLC, the holding company for RiverFront. Baird Financial Corporation (BFC) is a minority owner of RiverFront Investment Holding Group, LLC and therefore an indirect owner of RiverFront. BFC is the parent company of Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated (“Baird”), a registered broker/dealer and investment adviser.
These materials include general information and have not been tailored for any specific recipient or recipients. Accordingly, these materials are not intended to cause RiverFront Investment Group, LLC or an affiliate to become a fiduciary within the meaning of Section 3(21)(A)(ii) of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, as amended or Section 4975(e)(3)(B) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended.
Technical analysis is based on the study of historical price movements and past trend patterns. There are no assurances that movements or trends can or will be duplicated in the future.
Investing in foreign companies poses additional risks since political and economic events unique to a country or region may affect those markets and their issuers. In addition to such general international risks, the portfolio may also be exposed to currency fluctuation risks and emerging markets risks as described further below.
Changes in the value of foreign currencies compared to the U.S. dollar may affect (positively or negatively) the value of the portfolio’s investments. Such currency movements may occur separately from, and/or in response to, events that do not otherwise affect the value of the security in the issuer’s home country. Also, the value of the portfolio may be influenced by currency exchange control regulations. The currencies of emerging market countries may experience significant declines against the U.S. dollar, and devaluation may occur subsequent to investments in these currencies by the portfolio.
Foreign investments, especially investments in emerging markets, can be riskier and more volatile than investments in the U.S. and are considered speculative and subject to heightened risks in addition to the general risks of investing in non-U.S. securities. Also, inflation and rapid fluctuations in inflation rates have had, and may continue to have, negative effects on the economies and securities markets of certain emerging market countries.
Using a currency hedge or a currency hedged product does not insulate the portfolio against losses.
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