During CNBC’s “Power Lunch” program on Wednesday, Sharry Paul of UBS made it clear to not make portfolio decisions in moments of political and policy uncertainty. She was joined by “Fast Money” trader Dan Nathan, and Jason Pride of Glenmede, who all had advice on what investors must be watching for during market volatility.
As Paul continued, regarding lowering interest rates, this would be a good time to consider refinancing and looking at the other side of balance sheets. That in mind, she said it was not a great aspect for savers holding cast at levels and rates not beneficial to their portfolio.
When asked about how careful those with bond exposure need to be, Paul said she was comfortable. She adds, “When you’re looking at portfolio rebalancing, you really want to take into account that if you have unusual moves in any one of your asset classes, you should be taking gains and adding to areas of your portfolio that are underperforming.”
She added the importance of noting the dividend rates relative to something like a 10-year bond, as fluctuating yields clearly show what’s possible.
Pride spoke about the volatility and falling yields as well, adding the results of a recession model Glenmede had previously put together. While a yield curve does show recession as a greater possibility, every other indicator said otherwise.
From Pride’s perspective for clients, “While we are in the 10th, 11th year of the economic expansion in the bull market, it is getting long in the tooth, but at the same time, we’re not seeing the same buildup in excess.”
Pride recommends investors to stay with neutral/full equity allocation, and build in some defense within equity allocation into it to absorb the sudden changes. This will help create some insulation from various hiccups in trade policy. However, he notes not to take this too far as the expansion may seem bumpy, but is “alive and well.”
Nathan enters the conversation to speak on risk assets. He believes it’s unlikely to happen this time around, based on what was seen with rate cutting in the past. It speaks to a rate-cutting cycle that occurs when the S&P makes a new incremental high. “Do not by highs in this market,” Nathan says, “There is no torque to get a meaningful breakout.”
Nathan concludes by noting how equity investors have done well by buying the sell-offs but buying into fear as opposed to excitement when reaching that new high.
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