Bitcoin, the largest digital currency by market value, is not for the faint of heart. That point is constantly proven with Wednesday being the latest example.
Bitcoin prices plunged on news the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is delaying a decision on the fate of the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust ETF (XBTC).
The SEC explained that the Securities Exchange Act provides that it can extend the 45 days period from publication if it finds it “appropriate to designate a longer period” so it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change.
“Accordingly, the Commission, pursuant to Section 19(b)(2) of the Act designates September 30, 2018, as the date by which the Commission shall either approve or disapprove, or institute proceedings to determine whether to disapprove, the proposed rule change.”
With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear Tuesday would have been a bad day to get long bitcoin, but a new Yale University study suggests there are some ways to time bitcoin purchases.
Inside The Crypto Study
“The paper’s authors, economics professor Aleh Tsyvinski and economics Ph.D. candidate Yukun Liu, sought to ‘formulate and investigate potential predictors for cryptocurrency returns,’ according to the paper, and analyzed years worth of past price data for Bitcoin, Ripple and Ethereum. (The prices studied for bitcoin span from 2011 to 2018, while Ripple’s XRP and Ethereum’s ether data begins at the newer currencies’ inceptions in 2012 and 2015.),” reports CNBC.
Perhaps not surprisingly, momentum plays an important role in when to buy bitcoin, but what may be surprising is that buying the cryptocurrency after it has experienced big rallies can be a winning strategy.
“In fact, the best historical strategy would have been to buy bitcoin after its price already had a sharp increase — 20 percent in a single week — and sell just seven days after buying, Tsyvinsky and Liu concluded,” according to CNBC.
Sentiment, including what market participants are saying about bitcoin and other digital currencies online, can also be a solid avenue for timing purchases.
“Tsyvinsky and Liu found the amount of interest and hype around cryptocurrencies, measured by investors searching and posting online, was a significant predictor of price movements,” reports CNBC.
For more information on the cryptocurrency market, visit our Bitcoin category.