By James E. Wilson via

I figured we would just get right to it this week. Isn’t that what everyone wants, superior outcomes? Yes indeed, there are steps that you can take to influence outcomes, but don’t let anyone tell you outcomes can be engineered or precisely controlled. They can’t.

Human behavior is by far the most important ingredient in achieving good long-term outcomes. We crave certainty and want to believe gurus “know” what is going to happen in the markets. Here is a list of these gurus who have consistently called market tops and bottoms.

No, I didn’t forget the list. It just doesn’t exist! The list is blank.

Seeing Patterns When None Exist

If we could just detect the signals or patterns in the markets, then we could achieve superior returns. Right? Sorry, no, this is wrong. We are wired to look for patterns that don’t exist. The even bigger problem is that we don’t have a way to detect real trends from noise. That’s where the gurus come in, I guess.

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