The Global X MSCI Greece ETF (NYSEArca: GREK) is up 31.6% year-to-date, good for one of the best performances among single-country exchange traded funds. Additionally, GREK, the lone ETF dedicated to Greek stocks, is on a fourth-quarter tear with a gain of nearly 14% since the start of October.
There are still some catalysts that could potentially help GREK rebound. Eurozone and emerging markets stocks are attractively valued relative to the U.S. and those discounts are evident with some of GREK’s holdings. That theme has been prompting investors to revisit the lone ETF trading in the U.S. that is dedicated to Greek stocks. Importantly, Greece’s finances are improving.
However, GREK could still use an assist from Greek banks. Financial services is GREK’s largest sector weight at almost 29%.
“It’s no secret that Greek banks have been under pressure for the better part of a decade, contending with the effects of a deep economic recession as the country works through its excessive debts,” according to Global X research. “While the Greek equity markets have managed to rally over 20% so far in 2017, returns for the nation’s banking sector are largely flat and have demonstrated intense volatility around news of potential asset quality reviews or stress tests.”
Eurozone and emerging markets stocks are attractively valued relative to the U.S. and those discounts are evident with some of GREK’s holdings. That theme has been prompting investors to revisit the lone ETF trading in the U.S. that is dedicated to Greek stocks. Greece is classified as an emerging market.
Valuing Greek banks is difficult and non-performing loans (NPLs) are an issue many market observers are aware of.
“We believe this underperformance and bouts of volatility stems from the market’s intense scrutiny of Greek bank assets,” said Global X. “Greek bank assets are particularly difficult to value given that they face significant non-performing loan (NPL) issues, meaning many loans are in default and the banks (and the market) are attempting to calculate how much they expect to recover of their principal. Based on how the banks are carrying these loans on their balance sheets, they believe they can recover on average just over half of the assets that they have designated as non-performing.”
GREK, which has almost $404 million in assets under management, allocates over 39% of its combined weight to energy and consumer discretionary stocks.
For more information on the Greek markets, visit our Greece category.