By Paul Quinsee via Iris.xyz
Themes and implications from the Global Equities Investors Quarterly
For more than a year now, a stronger, broader global growth environment has driven an acceleration in corporate profits around the world. As we approach the end of 2017, our estimates for a continued synchronized earnings recovery sustain what we would describe as our tempered optimism. We think this recovery will continue for a good while yet and are not expecting a recession (even for the now late-cycle U.S. economy) over the next couple of years. Our analysts’ forecasts of double-digit earnings for 2017 and 2018 look to be very much on course, having been supported by a wide range of positive second-quarter corporate results. As bottom-up stock pickers, we are finding ample opportunities, especially in Europe, Japan and emerging markets.
But our optimism is restrained. Higher equity valuations—and the absence of a significant market correction for quite some time—make us more cautious now. Our investors now expect average, not outsize, gains over the next 18 to 24 months. The eventual unwinding of global central bank balance sheet expansion, slated to begin with the Federal Reserve (Fed) in October, will surely present challenges. And after a strong run for global equity markets, we must guard against the trap of investor complacency and excessive risk taking.
In the following pages of our quarterly Global Equity Views, we present our investment outlook, discuss market trends and spotlight opportunities and potential risks.
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